01.How the order book works here
Prices are quoted in cents from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of an outcome. Buying YES at 34c means paying 34 cents for a contract that pays a dollar if the event happens. Every trade has a counterparty taking the other side at that price — the venue is not one of them, which is what separates an exchange from a bookmaker.
- Prices run 0-100c and read directly as implied probability.
- A YES at 34c and a NO at 66c are the same trade seen from opposite sides.
- Your counterparty is another trader, not the platform.
02.Market orders: certainty of fill, uncertainty of price
A market order takes the best available price and keeps taking until filled. On a deep market that is fine. On a thin one — which most prediction markets are away from the headline questions — your order can walk several cents up the book, and the average price you paid can differ noticeably from the quote you clicked. Always look at depth, not just the top of book.
- Fills immediately, at whatever the book offers.
- On thin markets, slippage is the dominant cost, not fees.
- Check depth before sending size, not just the displayed price.
03.Limit orders: your price, no guarantee
A limit order posts at a price you choose and sits until someone crosses to you. You avoid paying the spread and may collect it instead. The risk is straightforward: the market moves without you and your order never fills, which on a fast-moving news market is exactly when you most wanted the position.
- You set the price; you may capture the spread rather than pay it.
- No fill is guaranteed, and unfilled is worst precisely when news breaks.
- This is the default tool for anyone providing rather than taking liquidity.
04.Selling before resolution
Positions are tradable, so you are never locked in until the event settles. Selling means posting on the other side of the book and finding a buyer at your price. This is what makes prediction markets tradable instruments rather than bets — most active traders close well before resolution, taking the move rather than the outcome.
- Exit any time by selling into the book at the going price.
- What you actually get depends on depth, same as entering.
- Trading the move and holding to resolution are genuinely different strategies.